(research outline)
I. Not End or Cease by 2026.
2022 European War will prolonged. It will not cease at least by the end of 2026 because of following causes.
US strategic goals have not been achieved
War and chaos have become America’s goal. Maintaining world order through naval-based power is a costly method of management. When the United States loses the ability to “raise taxes” peacefully, it must resort to war and chaos to maintain the “Power Gap” needed to maintain order.
Poland, Romania, Hungary have not yet gotten their strategic gains
Weakening Russia, increasing Polish regional political power and reaping geopolitical dividends should be Poland’s three main political goals. Apart from a temporary increase in regional political power, Poland has not yet received any other political dividends.
Romania and Hungary have made their political and geopolitical ambitions clear. To prolong the war process and to increase chaos in western Ukraine are reasonable ways for Poland, Romania and Hungary to pursue their political dividends.
The three Baltic states want the war to continue
If Russia’s national power had not been severely weakened, the three Baltic countries would be in an even deeper political trap because of their total hostility to Russia. At present, these three countries do not dare to take the centre stage against Russia. But prolonging the war behind the curtain will be their main political objective.
Russia abandons political hesitation
Russia is clearly abandoning the political restraint of the early days of the war. It is now taking pragmatic steps to pursue its national interests. Advancing towards the L1 line and expanding the country’s security borders should be its pursuit now and in the future.
China expects European War to continue
China has basically confirmed that Europe will be China’s political burden in the future. Preventing Europe from becoming the war machine of the United States has become China’s new national policy. Weakening Europe serves this purpose
Many countries are preparing to take part in a great upheaval
Many countries have completed their political and ideological preparations. They are ready to join a major upheaval at any time in order to expand their own national interests.
II. High probability that European war will overlap or merge with Asian war.
III. No stable ceasefire line until Russia establishes a stable security border along L1
References:
Ye QiQuan. Europe’s Uncertainty(Book). Coming soon.
Ye QiQuan. Confined Walls still work in Russia-Ukraine War at least by 2026. PPPNet. Feb. 23, 2023. https://eng.pppnet.net/confined-walls-still-work-in-russia-ukraine-war-by-2026/
Ye QiQuan. China’s Unifying Plan:(7B) Uncertainty about Europe. PPPNet. Mar. 5, 2024. https://eng.pppnet.net/chinas-unifying-plan-7b-uncertainty-about-europe/